Saturday, November 25, 2006

Amylin gets approval for Byetta in Europe

Amylin Pharmaceutical's(AMLN) stock continued the recent weakness despite announcing European approval of it's diabetes treatment Byetta. I have previously written about Amylin and had recommended to wait for a better entry point ( click here to see that article).

Some of this recent weakness could be due to some expected competition form the strong launch reported by Merck of it's diabetes drug, Januvia and the anticipated launch of Glavus by Novartis in 2007. Both Glavus and Januvia are from the same class of small molecules known as DPP-IV inhibitors. Byetta affects the GLP-1 pathway and thus provides a different means of controlling blood sugar in patients with diabetes.

It is too early to tell whether the DPP-IV drugs will dominate the market. It is most likely that the addition of all these new treatment options will provide different solutions to different patients. I believe that all these new products will increase the awareness of different treatment options. I also think that Byetta will continue to enjoy good market uptake because of an early launch and a different and unique mechanism of action.

I recommend addition of AMLN at current level of $41 or below.


Altus Pharmaceuticals (ALTU) - Long Term, Buy

Company History:

Altus Pharmaceuticals (ALTU) is a biopharmaceutical company engaging in the development and commercialization of oral and injectable protein therapeutics for chronic gastrointestinal and metabolic disorders. It's platform technology includes a proprietary protein crystallization technique, which allows for better understanding of the structure of function of the molecule. The company's lead product candidates include ALTU-135, a phase II completed orally-administered enzyme replacement therapy for the treatment of malabsorption; and ALTU-238 used for the treatment of growth hormone deficiency in adults which is in phase II clinical trials. It's pipeline of pre-clinical candidates includes ALTU-237 for treatment of hyperoxalurias, and ALTU-236 for phenylketonuria.

Market potential:

The list of Altus' the potential drug candidates include novel biologic therapies geared at niche diseases. For example- ALTU-135 is an enzyme replacement therapy geared to treat certain aspects of Cystic Fibrosis in addition to other pancreatic diseases. If proven to be better than existing treatment, this product would have a dominant market position in a relatively small market size as far as the patients but a one that could be financially rewarding. This model closely resembles what made Genzyme a success story in the 90's.

Recent Problems Causing Delays:

There has been some manufacturing delays due to some problems in the assays used to test the quality of manufacturing materials. The management took the correct course of action by delaying the start of the trials until a correct process is in place. Even tough this results in a few more months of delay, the consequences of going into a phase III trial with poorly characterized material would have been disastrous. Furthermore, this delay allows the company more time to partner with a big pharmaceutical company to assist in execution of the trials both with funding and with expertise.

The Stock:

The stock, which started trading earlier this year, has had a wide range ( IPO at $15, high of $25 and low of around $11). This volatility is expected of a small cap biotech company with a market cap of about $430 M given the bad news that came out earlier and the biotech sector slump this summer.

The stock has made a strong move above its 200 moving average and it looks like the 50 and the 100 day MVA are soon to follow.

I think with a partnership agreement this year and with two late stage products with visible risks and rewards, ALTU is undervalued at $430 M or $18.7 /share. I expect this company to trade significantly higher in the next 12 months given a favorable partnership and no more additional clinical trial risks besides the normal uncertainties associated with any well designed trial. Of course, the stock price movement also depends on how the biotech index does in the same time frame.

Bottom Line:

I like ALTU for the long haul. Any pull backs unrelated to a fundamental issue should be considered a buying opportunity. ALTU is a good biotech long term investment with profatibility being at least 5 years away. However, patience could be rewarding and this stock could result in a 5-10X return.


Tuesday, November 21, 2006

VRTX a great company but the stock is overvalued

The charts show clear signs of short term correction. The stock price has appreciated 29% since end of October. The 50 day and 200 day moving averages are at 37 and 35.5 respectively. There is a lot of room for correction here. The good news from positive mid trial updates have been priced in. The only other piece of news that may move this stock is some toxicology results that are due to come out.

At 5.7 billion market cap and about 2 years removed from launch, I think it is a good time to unload more shares and options and wait for a better buying opportunity. I plan to purchase January $45 puts at $3.5 and wait for stochastics to signal oversold before going long with calls again.

I addition Susquehanna started coverage of VRTX with a negative rating that may weigh on the shares.

Friday, November 10, 2006

November Performance update

The image below shows a summary table of my performance to date. Since I do not buy and sell the stocks all at once, it is difficult to measure an accurate return but I am lisitng the prices as accurately as I can around the dates I buy and sell. Also, the total size of each trade as a percent of the portfolio is not the same. So, the true total portfolio return can not be measured. For example, the options that I trade end up being a very small fraction of my total portfolio ( less than 1%). I also keep a good portion 20-30% (sometimes higher) cash reserve.

I also added three new names to the non-biotech list. Toyota ( the most profitable company in Japan) China Medical Tech to get more Asia exposure in addition to Mastercard.

This month was a good month for the market in general. I expect the next few months and all of 2007 to be very challenging since the economy is expected to cool down significantly! Therefor I will shoot to increase my cash balance to at least 50% going into 2007.

Click on the image to see larger version.